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    STUDIA CHEMIA - Issue no. 1 / 2004  
         
  Article:   PROBABILISTIC APPROACH AND SIMULATION METHODS FOR RISK ASSESSMENT.

Authors:  CĂLIN I. ANGHEL, RADU IATAN.
 
       
         
  Abstract:  The purpose of this paper is to present a probabilistic approximation procedure for the risk assessment, suitable for technological equipments. It is reported like a risk of failure for a tank vessel type during its serviceable life. Simulation technique of a threshold value, named the limit state function (LSF), was prefered. It was conducted under the direct simulation method named Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS). The LSF was establishing on the base of the growth of a local admissible flaw of the welding seams until the fracture occurs. A professional analysis package Cristal Ball 2000-free trial version, was used to perform the simulation. Finally the study reveals the probabilistic assessment of failure for a chlorine tank under technological loads and design parameters. The study estimates the risk of damage as a measure for the safety. Highly values for LSF lead to low values for the risk of failure. This threshold value may be a key factor for engineers to decide when the structure can become unsafe. The method can be used to predict the probability of failure, such as the limit-state in risk and reliability analysis. This type of study is suitable for chemical engineers to work out optimal inspection and mentenance schedules  
         
     
         
         
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